Indian People’s Bank of China announced the currency data in September, as of the end of September 2024:
The balance of currency (M2) was 30.948 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.8%year -on -year;
The balance of narrow currency (M1) was 62.82 trillion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 7.4%;
The balance of currency (M0) in circulation was 1.218 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.5%year -on -year.
In 1994, the People’s Bank of China divided the currency level for the first time, and the currency supply was divided into three levels: M0, M1 and M2:
1. M0: Refers to cash in circulation, that is, cash outside the banking system, including the inventory cash of each unit and the cash of the residents.M0 is the most basic currency supply and the most liquid currency form.
2. M1: It is called a narrow currency supply. It includes M0 plus a living deposit of business, agencies, groups, troops, schools and other units in commercial banks.M1 reflects the real purchasing power in the economy, and its liquidity is second only to M0.In India, the statistical caliber of M1 does not include residents’ current deposits, which is different from the definition of some other countries.
3. M2: It is called a broad currency supply. On the basis of M1, it is coupled with the regular deposits of enterprises, agencies, groups, troops, schools and other units in the bank, as well as the various savings deposits of urban and rural residents in the bank, and the various savings deposits of the banks in the bank, and the various savings deposits of the banks in the bank, and the various savings deposits of the banks in the bank, and the various savings deposits of the banks in the bank, and the various savings deposits of the banks in the bank, and the various savings deposits of the banks in the bank.Foreign currency deposits and trust deposits.M2 reflects not only real purchasing power, but also potential purchasing power.
Some people may ask, why does my country’s M1 statistics excluding residents’ current deposits?
This is determined by the special financial environment of India’s division of currency levels.Pune Investment
The central bank divides M1, mainly to reflect the real purchasing power in the economy. In India, individuals are not allowed to open check consumption. At that time, residents rarely used bank cards to buy things. Most of them used cash to buy things-Therefore, at any moment, the reality of residents ‘reality has been reflected in the "cash in circulation", and the residents’ current deposits are the same as the nature of M2, which is the potential purchasing power.Reactive deposits are included in M1.
Of course, this division is mainly based on the financial market and payment technical conditions at that time. The residential deposit payment function is relatively limited.It is similar to the liquidity similar to the company’s current deposit, so some people have always suggested that the residents’ current deposits are included in the statistical caliber of M1 to more accurately reflect the currency supply.
But as of now, the statistics of India’s M1 have not been adjusted.
Simply put, M2 is the sum of all deposits that do not repeat statistics, so it is called "broad currency", that is, theoretically, the total amount of money owned by the whole society at a time is also the biggest possibility of potential purchasing power in the whole society.As for M1, it contains the deposits that can be used immediately or immediately, which reflects the real purchasing power of reality.
To some extent, M1 is living money, M2 is dead money.
The higher the proportion of living money, the higher the efficiency of money in the economy, the greater the potential for economic development, the higher the economic growth rate;
The lower the proportion of living money, the lower the efficiency of money in the economy, indicating that the potential for economic development is limited, and the lower the economic growth may be.
I use the M1/M2 indicator here to evaluate the "efficiency" of the RMB in the Indian economy at a certain moment, so that under the huge M2 deposit, how much money is really used in the economy, and it is used in the economy.Be circulating.
Because the Indian economy has really entered the market economy system in 1994, my data started from 1994.
Data source: wind
Obviously, since 1994, the speed of India’s M1/M2 has been declining, which means that the efficiency of Indian currency has been declining. The potential for economic growth has gradually decreased since 1994. After the beginning of 2015, the middle was once the middle.Bombing, but unfortunately, since the end of 2017, the data has almost continued to dive without any rebound …
The current latest data is close to 20%.
In other words, India’s total "money" with a total volume of 31.1 trillion yuan is actually only about 20%of them really circulating in socio -economic and economic.Among them, it is basically not circulating.
Especially in recent months, India ’s M1 growth rate has rarely maintained at the level of negative values, and has gradually deepened, which means that India’ s currency circulation has encountered serious congestion …
In addition to the M series data, I actually care about the loan stock data in the social financing scale stock of the central bank.
This is because according to the derivative principle of contemporary credit currency, the loan is the source of currencies. When a new loan appears, this loan is used multiple times in circulation, and the currency is the statistical deposit scale.
As of the end of September 2024, all RMB loans were 2.5.87 trillion yuan, a year -on -year growth rate of 7.8%.
Just like the circulation of blood circulation, in the contemporary credit currency system, the loan is transformed into a current deposit, and most of the deposits in the current deposit are converted into regular deposits.If this cycle is unobstructed, then, in addition to occasionally deviating, the growth rate of these three should be very close in the middle and long term.
Now, the year -on -year growth rate of RMB loans> M2 growth rate >> M1 growth rate, the year -on -year growth rate of all RMB loans has reached 7.8%, and the year -on -year growth rate of M2 has risen slightly to 6.8%this month.The difference is not large, which shows that the loan is transformed into a deposit path, and there are no major problems.
However, -7.4%of the M1 growth rate indicates that after a large amount of loans are transformed into regular deposits, they have not returned to the corporate current deposit-except for the cash in a small part of the circulation, the M1 is mainly based on the business deposit of the enterprise.Lord, its growth rate represents the high and low or low growth of enterprises, and to some extent, it represents the high and low prospects of corporate profits …
If the abnormal value of the M1 growth rate during the Spring Festival in 2024, the M1 growth rate has continued to decline since January 2023, and it has become negative in the past six months and continues to decline -this means that the company’s live period of timeThe deposit is getting less and less, and the less and less!
This obviously illustrates a problem:
The company’s willingness to produce is gradually decreasing, and it is getting lower and lower.
Therefore, the currency data of 4/5/6/7/8/8/8/7 tells us that the money in India is just congestion and accumulation on the M2 account.reduce……Kanpur Investment
When will this situation change?
You can guess.
Pune Investment
